Research Seminar in Probability and Statistics II - #10

7 Maio 2016, 10:09 Manuel Cabral Morais

I) Statistical Applications in Climatology. II) Predicting the weather for the next week, outlook of the climate for the XXIst century

I) Vanda Pires. II) Pedro Viterbo (IPMA, Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera)

May 18 (Wed.), 16:00 - Room P3.10 (Math. Building, IST, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa)

I) The study of Climatology is based on the analysis and interpretation of weather data collected over many years. To analyze such data, knowledge of basic techniques and statistical methods is required. The climate analysis uses principles and techniques of meteorological analysis, numerical and statistical. 

Applied climatology makes the maximum use of meteorological and climatological knowledge and information for solving practical social, economic, and environmental problems. 

Assessments of the effects of climate variability and climate change on human activities, as well as the effects of human activities on climate, are major factors in local, national, and global economic development,  social programmes, and resource management.

The main focus of this presentation is to show statistical applications in climatology that are used at IPMA, for example, climatic normals, climatic indicators, trends, return periods and others.

II) Current state of the art of weather forecasts has skill until day 6 to day 8. Nevertheless, it is possible to have reliable evolutions of the climate of the XXIst century; this apparent paradox will be explained in the presentation. Scenarios for the evolution of greenhouse gases throughout the century will be reviewed, as well as the climate impacts of each scenario. A climate portal (, or is being finalized: a rich source of information for students, research, private and public sector, especially designed for guiding multi-decadal strategic decisions.