GENERAL INFORMATION
LECTURES
Week 1
Week 2
- T03 04.10.2021 and 08.10.2021
- Video class 04.10.2021 - Part 1 (only for students' use)
- Video class 04.10.2021 - Part 2 (only for students' use)
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
CLASSES
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
- Exercises Handout Uncertainty Modelling
- @Risk example with "time series fit" and "optimize" functions (optimize your portfolio)
- @Risk example with "fit distributions"
- @Risk example with "correlation"
- @Risk example with an investment
- @Risk example with "optimize" function
LABS
Week 6
- Tutorial Precision Tree - Part 1
- Tutorial Precision Tree - Part 2
- Texaco file
- Homework_exercise_Precision Tree
Week 7
AUTONOMOUS WORK
VIDEOS/PRESENTATIONS
Week 1
- Video Professor Daniel Kahneman: Talks at Google
- Video Royal Society: Raising awareness of unconscious bias to members of the selection and appointment members
- Scales of Measurement - video (only for students' use)
- Scales of Measurement - presentation (only for students' use)
Week 3
- Hierarchical modelling video (only for students' use)
- Voting systems video (only for students' use)
- Voting systems presentation (only for students' use)
- Robustness analysis in M-MACBETH (only for students' use)
Week 4
- Multicriteria evaluation case study: Faculty evaluation - video (only for students' use)
- Multicriteria evaluation case study: Faculty evaluation - presentation (only for students' use)
- Multicriteria evaluation case study: The Pernambuco PPA case - video (only for students' use)
- Multicriteria evaluation case study: The Pernambuco PPA case - presentation (only for students' use)
- Cognitive Mapping with Decision Explorer sofware - Guiding document
Week 5
- Examples Collaborative Value Modelling: MEDI-VALUE project video (only for students' use)
- Bayesian Networks Properties with NETICA: video (only for students' use)
- Advanced DSM topics:Other techniques
for resource allocation - Presentation (only for students' use)
Week 6
- Subjective Probabilities video (only for students' use)
- Event Trees and Fault Trees video (only for students' use)
READING MATERIAL
Week 1
- Hammond J.S., Keeney R.L., Raiffa H. (1998). Even swaps: A rational method for making trade-offs. Harvard Business Review, 76(2), 137-150
- Howard, R. A. (1988). Decision analysis: practice and promise. Management Science, 34(6), 679-695.
- Montibeller, G., Von Winterfeldt, D. (2015). Cognitive and motivational biases in decision and risk analysis. Risk Anal, 35(7), 1230-1251.
- Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157),1124-1131.
- Phillips, L.D. (1984). A theory of requisite decision models. Acta Psychologica, 56, 29-48.
Week 2
- Bana e Costa C.A., De Corte J.M., Vansnick J.C. (2012). MACBETH. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 11(2),359-387.
- Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. (2004). Chapter 3 - Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART. In Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (3rd ed.). John Wiley &; Sons.
- Belton, V., & Stewart, T. J. (2002). Value Function Methods: Practical Basics. In Multiple criteria decision analysis: An integrated approach. Boston: Kluwer Academic.
- Stevens SS (1946) On the theory of scales of measurement. Science, 103(2684), 677-680.
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
- Clemen, R. T. (1996). Structuring Decisions. In Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis (2nd ed., pp. 40-100). Belmont, California: Duxbury Press.
- Terek, M. (2005). Decision trees and Influence
diagrams in decision analysis. Journal of the Applied Mathematics, Statistics
and Informatics, 1(1), 121-135.
- von Winterfeldt, D., Kavet, R., Peck, S.,
Mohan, M., & Hazen, G. (2012). The Value of Environmental Information
without Control of Subsequent Decisions. Risk Analysis, 32(12),2113-2132.
- Clemen, R. T. (1996). Risk Attitudes. In Making
Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis (2nd ed., pp. 461-502).
Belmont, California: Duxbury Press.
- Krahnen, J. P et al. (1997) Inferring risk
attitudes from certainty equivalents: Some lessons from an experimental study, Journal
of Economic Psychology 18 (1997) 469-486.
Week 7
- Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (2004). Chapter 7: Applying simulation to decision problems. In Decision analysis for management judgement (3rd ed., pp. 179-211). Chichester, West Sussex, UK: Wiley.
- Vose,D. (2008). Chapter 10: Fitting Distributions to Data. In Risk analysis: Aquantitative guide (3rd ed., pp. 263-300). Chichester, West Sussex: John Wileyand Sons.
- Roberts, J. A., Kirkpatrick, C. M., & Lipman, J. (2011). Monte Carlo simulations: maximizing antibiotic pharmacokinetic data to optimize clinical practice for critically ill patients. The Journal of antimicrobial chemotherapy, 66(2),227-231.
EVALUATION
Individual Essay
Group work 1
Group work 2
DSM Exam 25/11/2021
GRADES
- Grades Individual Essay
- Grades Group work 1
- Grades Group work 2
- Grades Exam 25/11/2021
- Final Course Grades
- Grades Appeal Season Exam 23/02/2022
- Final Course Grades (only students who did the Appeal Season Exam - 23/02/2022)
EXAMS FROM PREVIOUS YEARS
- MAD 2020_2021 2nd semester Exam Part 1 (with answers to MC questions)
- MAD 2020_2021 2nd semester Exam Part 2 (with answers to MC questions)
- MAD 2020_2021 2nd semester Exam Special Season (with answers to MC questions)