Before 2012

05/2010  C. A. Bana e Costa and M. Oliveira, "A Multicriteria Decision Analysis Model for Faculty Evaluation"

In the context of increasing demands for social and financial accountability of universities, the required implementation of transparent faculty evaluation systems constitutes a challenge and an opportunity for universities strategically aligning the activity of academic staff with the university goals. However, despite growing interest in the performance appraisal of faculty, only a few reported studies propose models that cover the full range of academic activities and the models in use are typically based on ad hoc scoring systems that lack theoretical soundness. This article approaches faculty evaluation from an innovative comprehensive perspective. Based on the concepts and methods of multiple criteria value measurement, it proposes a new faculty evaluation model that addresses the whole range of academic activities and can be applied within and across distinct scientific areas, while respecting their specificities. The model was designed for and adopted by the Instituto Superior Técnico (IST), the engineering school of the Technical University of Lisbon (TUL). The model has a two-level hierarchical additive structure, with top-level evaluation areas specified by second-level evaluation criteria. A bottom non-additive third level accounts for the quantitative and qualitative dimensions of academic activity related to each evaluation criterion. The model allows: the comparison of the performance of academic staff with performance targets reflecting the strategic policy concerns of university management; the definition of the multicriteria value profile of each faculty member at the top level of the evaluation areas; the computation of an overall value score for each faculty member, through an optimization procedure that makes use of a flexible system of weights; and the assignment of faculty members to rating categories.

4/2010 C. A. Bana e Costa, M. C. Carnero and M. Oliveira,"A multi-criteria model for auditing Predictive Maintenance Programme"

Auditing tools can play a key role in the continuous improvement of maintenance policies, in particular to enhance predictive maintenance (PM). This paper proposes a multi-criteria model for auditing a Predictive Maintenance Programme (PMP) developed and implemented in the General Hospital of Ciudad Real (GHCR) in Spain. The model has a two-level structure, with top level auditing areas specified by second level auditing criteria on which the performance of the PMP should be appraised. This structure resulted from the analysis and discussion of an internal questionnaire with the management, technical and consulting staff of GHCR. This also guided the association of a performance scale with each criterion, describing several reference levels of accomplishment. Using the MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique) approach, a hierarchical additive value model was constructed, with criteria weights and value scales derived from staff judgments of comparison of different reference levels and profiles of performance. This model enables managers to measure the performance of the PMP and its added value for the hospital, not only against each audit criterion individually, but also on each area and in overall terms. Integrated in a management "tableau de bord", the model outputs permit the identification of PMP deficiencies requiring urgent intervention and corrective measures for its continuous improvement.

3/2010 C. A. Bana e Costa and E. Beinat,"Estruturação de Modelos de Análise Multicritério de Problemas de Decisão Pública"

O tema deste trabalho é a estruturação de modelos multicritério de apoio à decisão pública em problemas complexos, e geralmente mal definidos, que envolvem pontos de vista múltiplos. A estruturação adequada permite estabelecer uma linguagem comum de argumentação e discussão das perspectivas e pontos de vista defendidos pelos diversos actores intervenientes, facilitando e estimulando a geração de novas oportunidades de decisão e alternativas de escolha tendentes a ultrapassar divergências de pontos de vista. 
Tecnicamente, do processo de estruturação deve resultar uma base operacional bem definida para ajudar o analista a ajudar o decisor e demais actores a identificar os pontos de vista fundamentais e a operacionalizar os critérios para avaliar os impactos das opções e comparar os seus prós e contras. Decomporemos a estruturação em actividades relacionadas com (1) a definição do problema, (2) a estruturação do modelo e (3) a análise dos impactos, isto é, a estimação das consequências da eventual execução de cada uma das opções consideradas.

2/2010 C. A. Bana e Costa, J. Lourenço and J. Bana e Costa, "A socio-technical approach for group decision support in public strategic planning: The Pernambuco PPA case"

This article describes a socio-technical approach to public strategic planning. Technical tools of problem structuring and multicriteria analysis were used in a decision conferencing process to support the key-players of the Pernambuco State Department of Social Development and Human Rights, in Brazil, to elaborate its 2008-2011 Multi-Annual Plan (PPA). In June 2007, for five consecutive days, thirty technical and political actors met to discuss what should be the fundamental objectives / development axes of the PPA and to generate, assess and classify intervention programmes to achieve the objectives. The Decision Explorer mapping software supported the structuring phase of the strategic planning process. Then, a computer-based multicriteria value model, created on-the-spot with the MACBETH approach and software, helped the politicians to evaluate the programmes in each fundamental objective, to weight the objectives and to appraise the overall benefit of each programme considering all objectives. The doability of the programmes was also appraised with MACBETH and, finally, the tensions between overall benefit and doability were analysed in a 2×2 strategic graph in which the programmes were classified into four categories: the "pearls" (the programmes with high benefit value and easy to implement), the "oysters" (high benefits but difficult to implement), the "bread and butter" (easy to implement but of low added value) and the "white elephants" (low benefit and difficult to implement). An agreement with a way forward was reached: at least all pearls and oysters should be selected. The robustness of this selection was analysed a posteriori with the PROBE software

1/2010 J. Oliveira-Zambujal and R. Pinheiro Alves, "The Ease of Doing Business Index as a toll for Investment location decision"

The Ease of Doing Business Index (EDBI) uses 41 variables to compare the business environment of different countries. It is widely used by policy makers, researchers and multinational companies. This paper aims to assess EDBI's consistency and validity in representing the business environment by using factor analysis. It is found that the EDBI presents a limited consistency and descriptive power of a country's business environment. The consequence of these findings is that multinational firms should handle carefully the EDBI in their investment decisions.

2/2009 R. Sanchez-Lopez and C. Bana e Costa, "El enfoque MACBETH para la incorporación de temas transversales en la evaluatión de proyectos de desarrollo"

Los esfuerzos de la Union Europea para la cooperación al desarrollo están sustentados en el principio de Desarrollo Humano Sostenible, equitativo y participativo, conduciendo a la inclusión en las políticas de desarrollo de los llamados "temas transversales" (cross-cutting issues): la promoción de los Derechos Humanos, la igualdad de género, la dimensión medioambiental, la democracia como valor social y el empoderamiento de los beneficiarios de las iniciativas de desarrollo, entre otros. Consecuentemente, la evaluación de proyectos de desarrollo debía pasar a incorporar operacionalmente dichos temas transversales, cuestionando así la adecuación de las metodologías tradicionales, como la análisis Costo Beneficio, para lidiar con la naturaleza intangible y cualitativa de las nuevas dimensiones de evaluación. Este artículo describe cómo la metodología multicriterio MACBETH fue utilizada para ayudar a la Unidad de Gestión de un importante programa de desarrollo rural en Bolivia - PRAEDAC - a construir un nuevo sistema de evaluación de proyectos, considerando los temas transversales a través de una serie de entrevistas individuales y de conferencias de decisión llevadas a cabo entre especialistas y técnicos de campo.

1/2009 P. S.Martins,"Individual Teacher Incentives, Student Achievement and Grade Inflation"

How do teacher incentives affect student achievement? We contribute to this question by examining the effects of the recent introduction of teacher performance-related pay and tournaments in Portugal's public schools. Specifically, we draw on matched student-school panel data covering the population of secondary school national exams over seven years. We then conduct a difference-in-differences analysis based on two complementary control groups: public schools in two autonomous regions that were exposed to lighter versions of the reform than in the rest of the country; and private schools, which are also subject to the same national exams but whose teachers were not affected by the reform. Our results consistently indicate that the increased focus on individual teacher performance caused a significant decline in student achievement, particularly in terms of national exams. The triple-difference results also document a significant increase in grade inflation.

12/2008 O. Meddeb, F. B. Abdelaziz, J. R. Figueira, "Some Generalizations of the Manipulability of Fuzzy Social Choice Functions"

This paper presents some generalizations of the Gibbard -Satterthwaite result (1973, 1975) for fuzzy preference relations. It explores the implication of weakening the transitivity condition of the Ben Abdealziz et al.'s (2008) fuzzy manipulability concept. For this purpose, the max-min transitivity is replaced by weaker transitivity: the max-⋆-transitivity, where ⋆ is a t-norm. In addition, the best alternative set concept is addressed in two ways. In the first way, it is defined from the t-norm concept. In the second one, it is defined based on the decomposition of fuzzy weak relations in terms of symmetric and regular components. The achieved results can be viewed as more general than the one presented in Ben Abdelaziz et al. (2008) on the strategy-profness of fuzzy social choice functions.

11/2008 A. Eusébio, J. R. Figueira, "A negative-cycle algorithm for computing all the supported efficient solutions in multi-objective integer network flow problems"

This paper presents a new algorithm for identifying all the supported non-dominated vectors (or outcomes) in the objective space, as well as the corresponding efficient solutions in the decision space, for the multi-objective integer network flow problem. Identifying the set of supported non-dominated vectors is of the utmost importance for obtaining a first approximation of the whole set of non-dominated vectors. This approximation is crucial, for example, in the two-phase methods that first compute the supported non-dominated vectors and then the unsupported non-dominated ones. Our approach is based on the negative-cycle algorithm used in single objective minimum cost flow problems, applied to a sequence of parametric problems. The proposed approach uses the connectedness property of the set of supported non-dominated vectors/efficient solutions to find all the integer solutions in the maximal non-dominated/efficient facets."

10/2008 A. S. C. Fernandes, "(Biblical) Creation of Value"

This paper deals with the concept of economic value and proposes a definition of and an algorithm to compute the value created in an economic process. The created value is the amount of value, from the Gross Value Added, that exceeds a minimum value to return and the latter is defined as the quantity of value that, by the end of a time period, should be returned to the stock of value in order to keep constant its capacity to reproduce the same value on the next cycle. Also, the concept of value is explored by a brief epistemological analysis concluding that it reflects human knowledge. It is argued that the increase of human knowledge is mirrored by the creation of value. The creation value algorithm is applied to the Portuguese economy, the results of which are compared with results of other European countries.

9/2008 T. Tervonen, J. R. Figueira, J. Steevens, M. Chappell, M. Merad, I. Linkov, "Risk‐based classification system of nanomaterials"

There is rapidly growing interest by regulatory agencies and stakeholders in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of products' life cycle (e.g., development, production, use and disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological agents may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material because of the variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as promote the safe use/handling of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. The stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial's physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and expert estimates. SMAATRI used Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

8/2008 J. C. Lourenço, C A. Bana e Costa, A. Morton, "Software Packages for Multi-Criteria Resource Allocation"

In this paper four commercial software packages for multi-criteria resource allocation are analyzed: Equity, HiPriority, Logical Decisions Portfolio and Expert Choice Resource Aligner. The key technical distinction concerns the type of resource allocation procedure used: Equity uses the benefit-to cost ratio approach, HiPriority also uses the benefit-to-cost ratio approach and an exhaustive enumeration approach, whereas Logical Decisions Portfolio and Expert Choice Resource Aligner use a mathematical programming approach.

7/2008 A. S. C. Fernandes, "Revisiting Technology and Knowledge: Their Contributions to Gross Value Added"

It is shown that the ideas of knowledge, technology and capital largely overlap such that their meanings are far from consensual between engineers, economists, managers and sociologists. This is a language and conceptual problem which introduces further difficulties in understanding, modeling and managing these valuable assets. A methodology is proposed, considering them as independent parameters, which is based on three new reconstructed concepts of knowledge, technology and capital. A deconstruction and reconstruction method is described, based on the concepts' epistemology, on one hand, and, on the other hand, on a criterion that points out to a desirable common understanding from the points of view of engineers, managers and economists. With the new operational concepts, an algorithm is proposed to quantify the values added by the uses of knowledge, of technology and of capital, as well as the value assessment of technology and of capital assets, separately. An application to the whole Portuguese economy, sector by sector, shows this model's potential to individually understanding the production and value adding roles of those three factors, namely by the definition of a technology index that explains a firm's or sector's technological dependence far better that the technological intensity that is currently being used.

6/2008 D. Datta, J. R. Figueira, C. M. Fonseca, F. Tavares-Pereira, "Graph Partitioning Through a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm: A Preliminary Study"

The graph partitioning problem has numerous applications in various scientific fields. It usually involves the effective partitioning of a graph into a number of disjoint sub-graphs/ zones, and hence becomes a combinatorial optimization problem whose worst case complexity is NP-complete. The inadequacies of exact methods, like linear and integer programming approaches, to handle large-size instances of the combinatorial problems have motivated heuristic techniques to these problems. In the present work, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA), a kind of heuristic techniques, is developed for partitioning a graph under multiple objectives and constraints. The developed MOEA, which is a modified form of NSGA-II, is applied to four randomly generated graphs for partitioning them by optimizing three common objectives under five general constraints. The applications show that the MOEA is successful, in most of the cases, in achieving the expected results by partitioning a graph into a variable number of zones.

5/2008 J. A. Dias, J. R. Figueira, B. Roy, "Electre Tri-C: A Multiple Criteria Sorting Method Based on Central Reference Actions"

In this paper, we propose a new method within the Electre framework. This method deals with sorting problems where the pre-defined and ordered categories are based on central reference actions instead of profile limits. We will call this method Electre Tri-C. Therefore, the well-known method called up to now Electre Tri based on profile limits, or boundary actions, will be designated here by Electre Tri-B. After setting the interest of this new sorting method, we introduce the assumptions and structural requirements which seem natural that the method should fulfill. Electre Tri-C provides two assignment rules: a descending and an ascending rule. This rules are quite similar to the pseudo-conjunctive rule (formerly called pessimistic) and the pseudo-disjunctive rule (formerly called optimistic) belonging to Electre Tri-B. Therefore, there exist differences on the assignment results which will be outlined in this paper.

4/2008 P. Faria, F. Lima, "Interdependence and spillovers: Is firm performance affected by others' innovation activities?"

We investigate the existence of performance spillovers associated with innovation activities by quantifying the innovation produced in surrounding firms and controlling for the fact that a firm is itself an innovation producer. We use two measures of innovation: engagement and expenditures in innovation activities. To tackle the endogeneity of the innovation variables on the firm production decision, we resort to the firm intellectual property protection methods as an instrument. We found a positive spillover of innovation on firm value added.

3/2008 G. Mavrotas, J. R. Figuei ra, K. Florios, "Solving the bi-objective multidimensional knapsack problem exploiting the concept of core"

This paper deals with the bi-objective multi-dimensional knapsack problem. We propose the adaptation of the core concept that is effectively used in single objective multi- dimensional knapsack problems. The main idea of the core concept is based on the "divide and conquer" principle. Namely, instead of solving one problem with n variables we solve several sub-problems with a fraction of n variables (core variables). The quality of the obtained solution can be adjusted according to the size of the core and there is always a trade off between the solution time and the quality of solution. In the specific study we define the core problem for the multi-objective multidimensional knapsack problem. After defining the core we solve the bi-objective integer programming that comprises only the core variables using the Multicriteria Branch and Bound algorithm that can generate the complete Pareto set in small and medium size multi-objective integer programming problems. A small example is used to illustrate the method while computational and economy issues are also discussed. Computational experiments are also presented using available or appropriately modified benchmarks in order to examine the quality of Pareto set approximation with respect to the solution time. Extensions to the general multi-objective case as well as to the computation of the exact solution are also mentioned.

2/2008 J. P. Jorge, C. Monteiro, "Determinação dos principais factores que influenciam a escolha de um destino de golfe usando análise estatística multivariada"

O objectivo central deste estudo é determinar quais os principais factores que influenciam a escolha de um destino de golfe. Este trabalho explora o uso de técnicas da estatística multivariada, nomeadamente o uso de análise factorial, na construção de mapas perceptuais, e de análise de regressão múltipla, na determinação da importância das várias dimensões de escolha identificadas na análise. As três principais dimensões perceptuais identificadas são o "Golfe", que reflecte o interesse pelo prestígio e competitividade dos campos, o "Acolhimento e valor", que reflecte o interesse pela relação qualidade-preço e pela hospitalidade e segurança do destino de golfe, e a "Animação e Lazer", que espelha o interesse pelas actividades complementares presentes num destino turístico ligadas à animação turística e actividades de lazer. Os mapas perceptuais mostram as posições competitivas, percebidas pelos turistas de golfe, dos seis destinos de golfe de Portugal e Espanha em análise: Oeste, Costa de Lisboa, Algarve, Costa del Sol, Costa Brava e Costa Blanca. Esta análise é em seguida efectuada para dois principais segmentos de turistas de golfe identificados na literatura -os "golfistas turistas" e os "golfistas dedicados", sendo os resultados comparados. Finalmente, ilustra-se como a metodologia usada permite apoiar decisões estratégicas de marketing no âmbito da gestão de um destino turístico.

1/2008 P. Faria, F. Lima, R. Santos,"Cooperation Innovation Activities: The Importance of Partners"

This paper analyses the importance of cooperation partners in the success of innovation activities. We contribute to the literature on cooperation on innovation activities that seeks to identify the characteristics that differentiate cooperative firms from non-cooperative firms, but propose a different approach. We construct an ordered model using the Portuguese Third Community Innovation Survey data, which allows distinguishing firms according to the evaluation of cooperation partners in the success of innovation. Our estimation results show that firms with higher levels of absorptive capacity, exports share, R&D engagement, innovation intensity, and that rate spillovers management as important, place greater value on cooperation partners in the innovation process.

23/2007 C. A. Bana e Costa, J. C. Lourenço, M. P. Chagas, J. C. Bana e Costa, "Development of Reusable Bid Evaluation Models for the Portuguese Electric Transmission Company"

Bid evaluation is the process of selecting a contractor from a number of bidders. The decision analysis models currently in use at the Portuguese Electric Transmission Company (REN) to evaluate bids were developed through a decision conferencing process supported by the MACBETH multicriteria approach and software. This paper presents the various components of this interactive socio-technical process. Given the number of contracts awarded by REN each year, it was crucial that the models be reusable in similar calls for tenders; this required substantial care in structuring the criteria, with a focus on constructed scales, and building value function models based on qualitative pairwise comparison judgments of difference in attractiveness. Also of particular interest is the approach for weighing benefits against costs.

22/2007 J. R. Figueira, S. Greco, V. Mousseau, R. Słowiński, "Interactive Multi-Objective Optimization (MOO) using a Set of Additive Value Functions"

In this paper we present a new interactive procedure for multiObjective optimization, which is based on the use of a set of value functions as a preference model built by an ordinal regression method. The procedure is composed of two alternating stages. In the first stage, a representative sample of solutions from the Pareto optimal set (or from its approximation) is generated. In the second stage, the Decision Maker (DM) is asked to make pairwise comparisons of some solutions from the generated sample. Besides pairwise comparisons, the DM may compare selected pairs from the viewpoint of the intensity of preference, both comprehensively and with respect to a single criterion. This preference information is used to build a preference model composed of all general additive value functions compatible with the obtained information. The set of compatible value functions is then applied on the whole Pareto optimal set, which results in possible and necessary rankings of Pareto optimal solutions. These rankings are used to select a new sample of solutions, which is presented to the DM, and the procedure cycles until a satisfactory solution is selected from the sample or the DM comes to conclusion that there is no satisfactory solution for the current problem setting. Construction of the set of compatible value functions is done using ordinal regression methods called UTAGMS and GRIP. These two methods generalize UTA-like methods and they are competitive to AHP and MACBETH methods. The interactive procedure will be illustrated through an example.

21/2007 L. Paquete, C. Camacho, J. R. Figueira, "A Two-phase Heuristic for the Biobjective 0/1 Knapsack Problem"

We report an experimental analysis on the connectedness of the efficient set for several benchmark instances of the Biobjective 0/1 Knapsack Problem with respect to the k-Hamming neighborhood. Our results indicate that efficient solutions are strongly clustered with respect to small distance bounds. Based on these findings, we propose a two-phase heuristic that obtains a set of supported solutions in a first phase, followed by a local search procedure that collects further nondominated solutions. Our numerical results show that this approach reaches good solution quality on instances where state-of-the-art algorithms fail to solve.

20/2007 I.M. João, C. A. Bana e Costa, J. R. Figueira, "An Alternative to the MUSA Method for Customer Satisfaction Analysis"

This paper presents a critical analysis of MUSA methods and introduces an alternative one. The aggregation method of the individual customer satisfaction criteria into an overall value function uses dummy variable regression techniques with additional constraints and employs the least squares approach for running the regression. The value of each level of the value function is calculated considering that each dummy variable coefficient represents the difference of value of that level to a reference level. The plot of the value functions and the relative weights provide a basis for a straightforward interpretation of the results. An illustrative example shows the differences observed between the models.

19/2007 I.M. João, C. A. Bana e Costa, "Service Quality Dimensions in Portuguese Hotels: A Pilot Investigation with Critical Incident Technique"

Service customers perceive quality in the moment of interaction with the service provider and particularly valuable is to define and understand costumers' requirements. This paper explores the dimensions of service quality in hospitality and recognises the dimensions which tend to be primarily a source of satisfaction and others that tend to be a source of dissatisfaction. To obtain the information it was conducted a pilot study applying the critical incident technique (CIT). The paper provides an overview of the critical incident technique, their strengths and weaknesses and its use in service research. Using CIT, data were gathered from two Portuguese hotel guests in Algarve, regarding satisfying or dissatisfying episodes with the service provided. The identification of the service quality dimensions is very important to develop measures to assess these quality dimensions allowing hotel managers to improve the delivery of costumer perceived quality during the provided service and also to have greater control over the outcome.

18/2007 C. P. Pires, M. Catalão-Lopes, "Signaling Advertising by Multiproduct Firms"

We consider the use of advertising expenses as quality signals in multiproduct firms, extending previous results on single product firms. In our model a firm introduces sequentially two products whose qualities are positively correlated. We investigate whether there exist information spillovers from the first to the second market. We show that, when correlation is high, the equilibrium in market 2 depends on the «quality reputation» the firm has gained in market 1. Moreover, a firm with a high-quality product 1 may need to advertise a very high amount in this market in order to separate from her low-quality counterpart. By advertising such high amount, the firm is also signalling the quality of the product that she will introduce in the future. Thus advertising in the first market has information spillovers in the second market.

17/2007 P. Martins, "Dismissals for cause: The difference that just eight paragraphs can make"

This paper provides evidence about the effects of dismissals-for-cause requirements, a specific component of employment protection legislation that has received little attention despite its potential relevance. We study a quasi-natural experiment generated by a law introduced in Portugal in 1989: out of the 12 paragraphs in the law that dictated the costly procedure required for dismissals for cause, eight did not apply to firms employing 20 or fewer workers. Using detailed matched employer-employee longitudinal data and difference-in-differences matching methods, we examine the impact of that differentiated change in firing costs upon several variables, measured from 1991 to 1999. Unlike predicted by theory, we do not find robust evidence of effects on worker flows. However, firm performance improves considerably while wages fall. Overall, the results suggest that firing costs of the type studied here decrease workers' effort and increase their bargaining power.

16/2007 O. Meddeb, F. B. Abdelaziz, J. R. Figueira, "Strategic Manipulation and Regular Decomposition of Fuzzy Preference Relations"

Gibbard (1973) and Satterthwaite (1975) have shown independently that any non-dictatorial voting choice procedure is vulnerable to strategic manipulation, when individuals express their preferences trough weak relations on the set of alternatives. This paper extends their result to the case of fuzzy weak preference relations on the set of alternatives. For this purpose, the manipulability and the dictatorship properties of fuzzy social choice functions are stated in terms of a symmetric and regular component of individual fuzzy weak preference relations. The proof of the established result is done by induction on the number of individuals.

15/2007 F. B. Abdelaziz, J. R. Figueira, O. Meddeb, "Fuzzy Strategy-Proofness and a Fuzzy Version of Arrow's Result"

In many social decision-making contexts, it is frequent to encounter manipulators that attempt to change the social choice in their favor by misrepresenting preferences. Ben Abdelaziz et al. (2007) have shown that strategic manipulations can be observed when certain types of fuzzy social choice functions are applied. This paper restates the previous result for fuzzy preference orders by means of fuzzy game forms.

14/2007 E. Tantar, O. Schutze, J. R. Figueira, C. A. C. Coello, E.-G. Talbi, "Computing and Selectingε-Efficient Solutions of {0,1}-Knapsack Problems"

This work deals with the computation and the selection of approximate - or e-efficient - solutions of f0; 1g-knapsack problems. By allowing approximate solutions in general a much larger variety of possibilities for the underlying problem is offered to the decision maker while the potential loss of these almost efficient solutions compared to related efficient ones can be adjusted a priori, depending on the given application. In this paper, we propose a novel population based stochastic algorithm for the computation of the entire set of efficient solutions, state a convergence result, and address the related decision making problem. For the latter we propose an interactive selection process which is intended to help the decision maker to understand the landscape of the obtained solutions.

13/2007 V. Mousseau, L. C. Dias, J. R. Figueira, "Multiple Criteria Sorting Models with Category Size Constraints"

We consider the Multiple Criteria Sorting Problem, that aims at assigning each alternative from a finite set A to one of the predefined categories. Sorting problems usually refer to absolute evaluation (the assignment of an alternative does not depend on the remaining ones), as opposed to ranking and choice problems in which the very purpose is to compare alternatives against each other. However, we may identify decision situations where the Decision Maker has concerns or constraints about the number or the proportion of alternatives assigned to each category. We therefore introduce the concept of category size and the concept of Size Constrained Sorting Problems. In such problems, the Decision Maker intends to define standards for absolute evaluation, subject to a relative evaluation of the category sizes (which indirectly involves comparison among the alternatives). We propose how to conduct a preference elicitation process to define a sorting model taking into account the conciliation between concerns relative to category size and concerns relative to sorting examples. As an illustration, we propose a procedure to infer the values for preference parameters that accounts for specifications provided by a Decision Maker about the size of categories, in the context of the UTADIS sorting model.

12/2007 T. Tervonen, G. F. Barberis, J. R. Figueira, M. C. Escribano, "Siting a university kindergarten in Madrid"

In this paper we present a real-life multicriteria decision making problem of choosing the site for a university kindergarten in Madrid. The largest private university of Madrid, San Pablo CEU, needs to build a kindergarten for personnels children. This study consists of two phases. In the first phase an approximative model was presented to the decision makers in order to motivate re-activating the process. In the second phase, a more detailed model with new alternatives was introduced. The criteria measurements as well as the preferences contain large uncertainties. Therefore, the problem is solved by using the SMAA-III software that allows to model uncertainties through joint probability distributions. We present the complete case study in which the preference parameters as well as the criteria measurements are modelled with various types of uncertainties.

11/2007 M. Catalão-Lopes, "Merger Policy in an Asymmetric Industry"

This paper addresses the informativeness of the Hefindahl-Hirshman concentration index as an indicator of the social desirability of a merger in an industry with cost asymmetry. In the setting employed, a suffcient condition for the merger to decrease external welfare is that the sum of the insiders' market shares exceeds 60%, a case in which a deeper evaluation by the authority is needed. However, the more asymmetric and the more numerous the firms in the industry are, the less informative is the magnitude of the concentration change with respect to the welfare eects of the merger .

10/2007 E. Tantar, C. Dhaenens, J. Figueira, E.-G. Talbi, "Interactive Hybridization of Metaheuristics and Landscape Analysis for Multi-Objective Optimization"

In the context of multi-objective optimization, interactive methods are proposed in order to incorporate the user preferences during the optimization process. This paper provides generic paths of interaction between classical hybrid metaheuristics and landscape analysis through a visual interactive tool. A biobjective permutation flow shop case study applying one of the proposed methods is also provided in the paper. The interactive method used within this context is based on the use of reference points and the definition of interest regions.

9/2007 D. Brito, M. Catalão-Lopes, "Mergers of producers of complements: how autonomous markets change the price effects"

We analyze the price effects of mergers to monopoly between producers of complementary goods when there exists a fraction of consumers that value only one of the components. We show that customers are more likely to face a price decrease for the composite good under this setting than when such consumers do not exist.

8/2007 J. R. Figueira, S. Greco, R. Slowinski, "Building a Set of Additive Value Functions Representing a Reference Preorder and Intensities of Preference: GRIP Method"

We present a method called GRIP (Generalized Regression with Intensities of Preference) for ranking a set of actions evaluated on multiple criteria. GRIP builds a set of additive value functions compatible with preference information composed of a partial preorder and required intensities of preference on a subset of actions, called reference actions. It constructs not only the preference relation in the considered set of actions, but it also gives information about intensities of preference for pairs of actions from this set for a given Decision Maker (DM). Distinguishing necessary and possible consequences of preference information on the all set of actions, GRIP answers questions of robustness analysis. The proposed methodology can be seen as an extension of UTA method based on ordinal regression. GRIP can also be compared to AHP method, which requires pair-wise comparison of all actions and criteria, and yields a priority ranking of actions. As for the preference information being used, GRIP can be compared, moreover, to MAC-BETH method which also takes into account a preference order of actions and intensity of preference for pairs of actions. The preference information used in GRIP does not need, however, to be complete: the DM is asked to provide comparisons of only those pairs of reference actions on particular criteria for which his/her judgment is suciently certain. This is an important advantage comparing to methods which, instead, require comparison of all possible pairs of evaluations on all the considered criteria. Moreover, GRIP works with a set of general additive value functions compatible with the preference information, while other methods use a single and less general value function, such as the weighted-sum.

7/2007 A. Mestre, M. D. Oliveira, A. Barbosa-Póvoa, "Organizing Hospitals into Networks: An Hierarchical and Multiproduct Model with Application to the Portuguese Health System"

Health care planners in countries with a system based on a National Health Service have to make decisions upon where to locate and how to organize hospital services, so as to pursue geographic equity and efficiency in the delivery of health care. Previous methods for analysing hospital networks have not always adequately taken into account the hierarchical and multiproduct nature of hospital networks. This study develops a hierarchical multiproduct mathematical programming model to define location and supply of hospital services that maximizes patients' accessibility to hospitals. The model: a) considers inpatient care, external consultations and emergency care as hospital products; b) departs from a two-tiered hospital hierarchical system; c) and allows for two way referrals of patients between hospitals at different levels of the network. A mixed integer and linear program (MILP) formulation is developed, which is implemented in the generic algebraic modelling system, GAMS and solved through the use of a commercial Branch and Bound solver (CPLEX). As main results, it is obtained crucial information for planning, such as referral networks, hospital catchment's areas, and the structure of hospital supply. The model is applied to a case study of the Portuguese NHS that includes the Lisbon and Tagus Valley, Alentejo and Algarve Administrative Health Regions. Due to the complexity of the problem, a solution strategy involving a multi-stage solution decision is used. The model appears as highly demanding in terms of data available and calibration of parameters, but the results are robust and indicate which changes could potentially improve the current hospital network.

6/2007 I. Linkov, A. Tkachuk, A. Levchenko, T.P. Seager, S.P. Tuler, R. Kay, J.R. Figueira, T Tervonen, "An MCDA Approach for Establishing GPRA Metrics: Oil Spill Response"

The Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) of 1993 requires Federal agencies to establish objective, quantifiable goals describing the outcomes of agency programs. The purposes of the Act are fairly straightforward: to improve confidence, performance, accountability, feedback, decision-making and management in Federal agencies. However, implementation of the Act in different agencies has been complicated by several factors including a lack of expertise in strategic planning, difficulty reconciling multiple missions or divergent perspectives, a lack of structured approaches to engaging relevant stakeholder groups and the presence of multiple confounding factors that obscure the relationship between agency efforts and outcomes. Currently, there is no reliable, structured approach to establishing GPRA metrics that can be transferred from one agency to the next. Successful case studies have largely resulted from ad hoc efforts within agencies with different degrees of expertise related to performance measurement, public or stakeholder participation and decision support. Consequently, the requirements of the Act remain a source of concern to many federal agency managers. This paper hypothesizes that many of the challenges posed by the Act are characteristic of the types of problems that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is appropriate for and proposes an MCDA framework for establishing a suite of GPRA metrics for gauging the effectiveness of oil spill response efforts. The key advantage of this framework is the visualization and quantification of the uncertainties involved in planning or decision-making processes and the potential to model multiple stakeholder responses. Moreover, we expect an MCDA approach to be generalizable to multiple agencies engaged in environmental protection missions and/or crisis response.

5/2007 P. Oliveira, A. P. Barbosa-Póvoa, "School Bus Routing and Scheduling: a Real Case Study"

This paper presents a model to schedule school buses transportation routes. Student's daily routes defined between student's homes, schools and extra curricula activities are analysed while accounting for three different objectives: number of vehicles, route total time and average passenger travelling time. A combined multiobjective function is defined. As solution method to this problem, a heuristic algorithm was developed. This combines a set of heuristic procedures with a simulated annealing algorithm. The developed algorithm applicability and efficiency is studied on the solution of a real case-study of a students transportation company that operates in the city of Lisbon in Portugal. As results, it was found an improvement on the economics and service level up to 3% and 28%, respectively, when compared to the real current routes.

4/2007 Augusto Eusébio, José Rui Figueira, "Anε-Constraint based Method for Finding All the Efficient Solutions and All Non-Dominated Vectors for Bi-Criteria Network Flow Problems"

This paper presents a method for identifying all the efficient solutions and non-dominated vectors for integer bi-criteria "minimum cost" network flow problems. The method combines a network simplex algorithm, theε-constraint method and a branch-and-bound algorithm. The set of all non-dominated vectors in the criterion space is determined by solving anε-constraint problem with branch-and-bound techniques. By exploring the branch-and-bound then all the efficient solutions can be defined. The main advantage of the proposed method concerns the identification of non-integer solutions exploiting only network structures. Computational results are also reported in this paper.

3/2007 A. C. Amaro, A. P. Barbosa-Póvoa, "Optimal Supply Chain Management with Detailed Scheduling"

In this paper a new model formulation is develop for industrial supply chains operation. This accounts for the supply chain structural and dynamic characteristics where different topological, operational and marketing characteristics (market supplies, demands and price levels) are considered in a single level formulation. The formulation results into a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP) model which relies on the discretization of the time horizon of operation into intervals of equal duration. As final solution the model provides a detailed supply chain operational plan where supplying, production, inventory and transportation are jointly scheduled so as to optimise a pre-defined economical or operational performance criterion. Finally, the flexibility and applicability of the new formulation is validated through the solution of a practical example.

2/2007 A. Eusébio, J. R. Figueira, "A Note on the Computation of Non-Dominated Supported Vectors in Bi-Criteria Network Flow Problems"

This paper shows that the solutions of bi-criteria network flow problems associated with supported nondominated vectores are connected. It presents also a negative cycle based algorithm for computing such solutions. Eusebio and Figueira (2006) have shown that the concept of Spanning Tree Structure (STS) cannot be used for this purpose since there are examples that show that non-dominated supported points are not connected.

1/2007 T. Tervonen, J. R. Figueira, R. Lahdelma, P. Salminen, "Towards Robust ELECTRE III with Simulation: Theory and Software of SMAA-III"

ELECTRE III is a well-established multiple criteria decision making method with a solid track of real-world applications. It requires precise values to be specified for the parameters and criteria measurements, which in some cases might not be available. In this paper we present a method, SMAA-III, that allows ELECTRE III to be applied with imprecise parameter values. By allowing imprecise values, the method also allows an easily applicable robustness analysis. In SMAA-III, simulation is used and descriptive measures are computed to characterize stability of the results. We present a software implementing the method and show the usage by re-analyzing an existing case study.

9/2006 A. Eusébio, J. R. Figueira, M. Ehrgott, "A Primal-Dual Algorithm for Bi-Criteria Network Flow Problems"

In this paper we develop a primal-dual simplex algorithm for the biobjective linear minimum cost network flow problem. This algorithm improves the general primal-dual simplex algorithm for multiobjective linear programs by [3]. We illustrate the algorithm with an example and provide numerical results.

8/2006 Isabel M. João, "Customer Satisfaction Measurement with Dummy Variable Regression with Constraints"

A new method for measuring and analyzing customer satisfaction is presented in this paper. The mathematical model expresses the fundamental relationship between criteria and the overall utility which expresses the global customer satisfaction. The procedure used to estimate the basic model is dummy variable regression with constraints. The method can very simply consider nonmetric data by codification of the criteria levels so in that way is possible to consider the qualitative judgments and preferences of the customer. The method accounts for the non-linear response of customer satisfaction to the performance of different product/service criteria. The paper presents the interpretation of the results based on the utility functions for each criterion. The main advantages of the method are discussed and future research about this topic is proposed.

7/2006 I.M. João, "A Critical Review of Customer Satisfaction Measurement in Tourism Industry"

This paper reviews and discusses the topic of customer satisfaction and its measurement. Defines the concept of customer satisfaction and some models used to access customer satisfaction in service and in particular in tourism industry. The paper highlights some tendencies of customer satisfaction measurement and makes a critical analysis of scales of measurement and its influence in data analysis techniques. The paper also focuses a methodology that can overcome problems of data analysis and concludes with some topics for future research in this subject.

6/2006 J. O. Soares, J. O. Neves, F. Fernandes, "O Impacto da Classificação de Património Mundial no Desenvolvimento dos Destinos Turísticos: o Caso de Sintra"

Este artigo analisa o impacto que a classificação Património Mundial, atribuída pela UNESCO, tem no desenvolvimento dos destinos turísticos. Sendo o turismo a principal actividade económica mundial, o seu crescimento surge cada vez mais ligado à fruição do património cultural. Daí a consciência dos responsáveis pelos destinos sobre a importância do património cultural para o reforço da imagem, do posicionamento e da atractividade dos mesmos. A presente abordagem de estudo de caso, aplicado ao destino português Sintra, assenta na análise do impacto da sua classificação como Património Mundial, com base na análise comparativa da procura turística, antes e após a atribuição da referida classificação, bem como num inquérito realizado aos visitantes.

5/2006 J. R. Figueira, G. Tavares, M. Wiecek, "Labelling Algorithms for Multiple Criteria Knapsack Problems"

The paper presents a generic labeling algorithm for finding all nondominated outcomes of the integer multiple criteria knapsack problem (MCKP).The algorithm is based on solving the multiple criteria shortest path problem on an underlying network. Algorithms for constructing four network models, all representing the MCKP, are also presented. Each network is composed of layers and each network algorithm, working forward layer by layer, identifies the set of all permanent nondominated labels for each layer successively. The effectiveness of the algorithms is supported with numerical results obtained for randomly generated problems for up to seven criteria or forty variables. One of the algorithms appears to determine the state of the art in exact algorithms for the MCKP. Extensions of the approach to other classes of problems including binary variables, bounded variables, multiple constraints, and time-dependent objective functions are possible.

4/2006 J. A. Dias, J. R. Figueira, B. Roy, "The Software Electre III-IV: Methodology and User Manual (Version 3.X)"

This document has two main objectives: to make a brief presentation of ELECTRE III, and ELECTRE IV methods; and to help the user of the ELECTRE III-IV software. It is based on two manuals in French elaborated by Dominique VALL ´EE and Pitor ZIELNIEWICZ.

3/2006 A. Eusébio, J. R. Figueira, "Bi-Criteria Network Flow Problems: A Characterization of Non-Dominated Solutions"

This paper deals with network flow problems with two criteria. The main purpose of the paper is to present a characterization of non-dominated solutions when using a simplex like algorithm for identifying supported non-dominated solutions for the integer bi-criteria network flow problem. This study can help us for a better understanding of network flow problems with multiple criteria. The paper also presents an "e-constraint based technique for identifying all efficient non-dominated solutions for the integer bi-criteria network flow problem.

2/2006 J. R. Figueira, S. Greco, B. Roy, "Electre Methods with Interaction between Criteria: An Extension of the Concordance Matrix"

Cet article est consacré à une généralisation de l'indice de concordance global pour les méthodes ELECTRE. Une telle généralisation a été conçue pour prendre en compte l'interaction entre critères. Trois types d'interaction ont été considérés: auto-renforcement, auto-affaiblissement et antagonisme. Dans des situations de décision réelles, il est raisonnable de considérer l'interaction entre un petit nombre de paires de critères. Afin que le nouvel indice de concordance prenne correctement en compte ces types d'interactions, diverses conditions de frontière, de monotonicité et de continuité ont été imposées. On démontre que l'indice généralisée pend en compte de façn satisfaisante les trois types d'interaction (ou dépendance entre critères), tout d'abord en présence de quasi-critères puis en présence de pseudo-critères.

1/2006 C. Vieira, I. Vieira, "Foreign Exchange Markets' Seasonal Effects in the Newly Integrated EU Countries: What can they tell us"

Evidence of seasonal and other regularities in financial markets challenges traditional theories on how markets price securities, and suggests some predictability which could be used to obtain abnormal profits. The empirical studies have largely focused on stock markets, although the methodology may be extended to other markets also important in portfolio investment choices. This paper focuses on the foreign exchange markets of the new European Union members, and searches for some of the usual calendar effects. Broadly considered as tests of financial markets' efficiency, they may shed some light on the current financial maturity of the new members, and provide useful information in terms of the timing for euro adoption.

6/2005 M. S. Marques, C. Bana e Costa, J. F. Thomaz, A. Ferreira, "Metodologia de Avaliação de Propostas em Programas de Aquisição de Armamento. O caso da aquisição de VBR 8x8 para o Exército e para a Marinha"

Recentemente, o MDN, através da DGAED, em articulação com o Exército e a Marinha, conduziu o concurso para aquisição de Viaturas Blindadas de Rodas. O processo incluiu a revisão e harmonização dos requisitos, a elaboração do programa de concurso e do caderno de encargos, a análise das propostas, a realização de testes em Portugal e no estrangeiro, e negociações, tendo culminado com a adjudicação da proposta globalmente mais atractiva. O Regulamento de Avaliação do concurso baseou-se na metodologia MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique), que foi escolhida considerando a sua aplicação, com excelentes resultados, em grandes concursos nacionais e internacionais, constituindo uma ferramenta de apoio flexível, consistente e robusta. Por ser a primeira vez que tal metodologia era aplicada em concursos na Defesa Nacional, contou-se com o apoio do Instituto Superior Técnico, para a definição e aplicação da Metodologia de Avaliação. Neste artigo referem-se as diversas fases do concurso, desde a consolidação dos requisitos até à adjudicação, salientando-se o papel que a metodologia de avaliação teve no apoio à decisão conduzindo à opção pela assinatura, não apenas do Contrato de Aquisição, mas também de um Contrato de Fornecimento de Sobressalentes abrangendo um período considerável do ciclo de vida das viaturas.

5/2005 T. Tervonen, J. Figueira, "A Survey on Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis Methods"

Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) comprises a family of multiple criteria decision aiding (MCDA) methods for problems including incomplete, imprecise, and uncertain information. Methods of the family allow solving MCDA problems of various types. Even though the methods have been applied in the past in various real-life decision-making situations, the structure of a unified SMAA framework has not been studied. In this paper we describe the methods of the family and define a unified SMAA framework. We also point out the key points in the methodology for future research.

4/2005 C. Gomes da Silva, J. Clímaco, J. Figueira, "Core Problems in the Bi-Criteria {0,1} - Knapsack: New Developments"

The most efficient algorithms for solving the single-criterion {0,1}-knapsack problem are based on the concept of core, i.e., a small number of relevant variables. But this concept goes unnoticed when more than one criterion is taken into account. The main purpose of the paper is to check whether or not such a set of variables is present in bi-criteria {0-1}-knapsack instances. Extensive numerical experiments have been performed considering five types of {0,1}-knapsack instances. The results are presented for supported, non-supported and for the entire set of ecient solutions.

3/2005 F. B. Abdelaziz, J. Figueira, O. Meddeb, "The Fuzzy Manipulability and the Rationality of Choice"

In this paper, our attention is focused on some choice functions with fuzzy preferences. They verified some plausible properties presented by Barrett et al. (1990) and Sengupta (1999). The main objective of this paper is to make the connection between the manipulability of fuzzy social choice functions and the rationality of choice. On one hand, we establish the link between Tang's result and PO-rationality. On the other hand, H and D[α] rationality by Dutta et al. (1986) allows us to prove both generalizations of Gibbard-Sattertherwaite manipulation theorem.

2/2005 F. B. Abdelaziz, J. Figueira, O. Meddeb, "On The H-Manipulability of Fuzzy Social Choice Functions"

In voting theory the well-known Gibbard-Satterthwaite theorem is about the manipulability of aggregators which consists of the aggregation of individual preferences expressed as a complete ordering over the set of alternatives. This paper deals with the generalization of such a theorem in a context where each individual expresses a fuzzy preference (weak) ordering. This extension is called H-manipulability. The concept of fuzzy game form as the generalization of Gibbard's concept game form is also introduced here in a fuzzy framework. The proof of the H-manipulability theorem is relied on the connection of fuzzy social choice functions with fuzzy aggregation rules. In particular, the dictatorship of fuzzy aggregation rules corresponds to the H-dictatorship fuzzy social choice.

1/2005 F. Tavares-Pereira, J. Figueira, V. Mousseau, B. Roy, "Comparing two Territory Partitions in Districting Problems: Measures and Practical Issues"

Planning in Public Sector decision-making situations with a socio-economic dimension is an activity of the uttermost importance, mainly for urban planners. The ramifications of such decisions have strong effect on the life of populations. This paper deals with the comparison between district maps of a territory in the context of districting problems having a strong social-economic component. The theoretical problem context is about comparison between two partitions in a connected, non-oriented, and planar graph according to a certain attribute. To our best knowledge this problem is not so common in the literature. The question how to compare two partitions led us to the introduction of three new concepts: compatibility, inclusion, and distance. This is the main novelty of the paper. The proposed measures are strongly dependent on the real-world applications we were face with.Numerical experiments were done on the Paris region territory.

8/2004 J. Figueiredo, T. Gil "Organização Empresarial e Tecnologia, Ferramentas de Integração"

Os portais empresariais interactivos, integrando motores de busca e gestores de conteúdos, e desenvolvidos em redor de arquitecturas de base de dados, com incorporação de processamento de workflow, têm vindo a permitir a exploração de culturas organizacionais com novas dimensões. Ao colocarem-se como pontos de passagem obrigatórios, estas ferramentas contribuem de forma inovadora para as funções de gestão, nomeadamente controlo. Mas controlo empresarial e cultura organizacional andam de mãos dadas, contribuindo ambos para a dinamização de grupos, motivação e aumento de qualidade. Em termos organizacionais, ao eliminarem tarefas sem valor acrescentado e promoverem a redução da burocracia, estão a agilizar o front-office empresarial, enquanto asseguram uma melhor organização, estruturação e controlo no back-office. Estas ferramentas apresentam hoje resultados facilmente quantificáveis, mostrando de forma inequívoca o seu contributo para o acréscimo de produtividade nas organizações e consequente redução de custos. Este trabalho apresenta duas dessas ferramentas, suportadas em arquitecturas de workflow, e o seu impacto numa das maiores multinacionais do mercado português.

7/2004 J. Figueiredo, "Sistemas de Informação como Redes de Actores: Contextos para o Desenvolvimento, Adopção e Uso"

Reflectindo sobre a necessidade de integrar, acompanhar e gerir o processo de desenvolvimento, adopção e uso de sistemas de informação nas organizações, apontam-se novas formas de abordagem, de natureza sócio-técnica, para assegurar uma maior eficácia de desempenho. As redes de actores e as comunidades de prática, como contextos proporcionadores e facilitadores de acção, e as envolventes conceptuais e paradigmáticas, são objecto desta investigação, que se situa numa vertente fundamentalmente teórica. Para além dos aspectos paradigmáticos e metodológicos, apontam-se ferramentas que se consideram adequadas para o objectivo em causa. Ao nível das ferramentas, consideram-se ferramentas conceptuais, como a teoria da refutação, comunidades de prática e aprendizagem organizacional, assim como se consideram ferramentas práticas, baseadas em tecnologia web, portais e gestores de conteúdos.

6/2004 J. O. Soares, M. C. Coutinho, C. V. Martins, "A Note on Forecasting Errors in Capital Budgeting: a Multi-Firm Post-Audit Study"

This is a post-audit study concerning the accuracy of capital budgeting procedures. It is based on the statistical analysis of the deviations occurring between effective and forecasted performance of companies after implementing their projected investments. The forecasts were collected from a large database of applications to investment incentives submitted for the consideration of the Portuguese Governmental Agency IAPMEI during the II European Union Framework Programme. The first conclusion of the study is the significance of negative forecasting errors of post-investment sales and their implication in terms of the expected profitability. On the contrary, forecasts on future operating costs were quite accurate and errors on investment expenses revealed high volatility. Also interesting is the finding that there seems to be no relationship between the size, industry, region or investment incentives and the pattern of the errors found.

5/2004 P. Akester, F. Lima, "The economic dimension of the digital challenge: a copyright perspective"

The digital revolution has increased the economic importance of copyright, but also made copyright infringement much easier. This paper addresses the most fundamental economic challenge for copyright in the third millennium: to achieve the right level of copyright protection. It is just as dangerous to produce a system with too much protection as one with too little.

4/2004 M. I. R. Santos, A. M. O. Porta Nova, "Estimation of Nonlinear Simulation Metamodels using Control Variates"

The method of control variates has been intensively used for reducing the variance of estimated (linear) regression metamodels in simulation experiments. In contrast to previous studies, this paper presents a procedure for applying multiple control variates when the objective is to estimate and validate a nonlinear regression metamodel for a single response, in terms of selected decision variables. This procedure includes robust statistical regression techniques for estimation and validation. Assuming joint normality of the response and controls, confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for the metamodel parameters are obtained. Finally, results for measuring the efficiency of the use of control variates are discussed.

3/2004 F. Lima, "How much Mobility? Careers, Promotions and Wages"

The objective of this paper is to study the determinants of job mobility and the effect of mobility on wages, considering not only the workers' career between firms, but also within firms, using a longitudinal matching employer-employee data set. The results obtained show a negative relationship between tenure and the probability of exit and that the new jobs tend to end early. Moreover, the career advancement within the firm decreases the probability to exit. Concerning wages, job separations can have a positive impact on wage growth, especially for the younger workers. Movements to larger firms or another industry can also be associated with positive wage growth. This shows that the workers' movements between employers and industries are important to enhance their career prospects.

2/2004 M. Oliveira, G. Bevan, "A Multilevel Model to estimate Unavoidable Costs and to Disentangle Allocative Inefficiencies of Hospital Care"

In developing policies to improve the equity and efficiency of systems of health care it is useful to have estimates of the degree of variations in costs of hospital care that are caused by structural characteristics and beyond the scope of local hospital management. The objective of this study was to develop a generalisable model to derive estimates of such costs, which we describe as "unavoidable". This multilevel model estimates total costs per unit of measurable output and identifies different causes of variations in hospital costs by using random intercepts and random slopes. We applied this model to a country with a national health service and identified the existence of diseconomies of scale, and other causes of allocative inefficiencies in centrally-determined distributions of beds and doctors, a lack of local flexibility and systems with perverse incentives.

1/2004 R. M. Brandão, A. M. O. Porta Nova, "Output Analysis of Cyclical Simulations"

In this paper, we present an approach for analyzing the output of non-terminating cyclical simulations. Deterministic components are estimated with nonlinear regression and Fourier series, while SARIMA models are used for the residuals. The approach is illustrated with a single lane traÆc analysis.Some conclusions and suggestions for further work are stated.

9/2003 P. V. D. Correia, "Poder de Decisão sobre a Classificação dos Usos e a Regulação da Oferta e dos Preços do Imobiliário"

O planeamento urbanístico municipal assente no zonamento do uso do solo aliado ao controlo do processo de desenvolvimento urbano principalmente determinado pelo sector privado e desarticulado da política fiscal que incide sobre o imobiliário, apresenta sérias limitações para o ordenamento do território e para assegurar de facto o princípio de justiça entre proprietários imobiliários. A garantia da eficácia e eficiência da administração do território municipal requer uma actuação municipal pro-activa, que ultrapassa as determinações do quadro legal vigente, pois implica a mobilização de não apenas de meios, mas também de vontades e de capacidade de decisão quanto à perequação de benefícios e de encargos, e de graduação do interesse público, no exercício do poder necessariamente discricionário de administração do território.

8/2003 J. Figueiredo, "Learning and Distributed Decision in a Collaborative Platform"

This paper describes and justifies the methodological combination of Participatory Action Research and Actor-Network Theory, using concepts of Organizational Learning and Communities of Practice, in the design of a cooperative inter-institutional meeting platform, addressed as a "knowledge network". This platform supports a community of key organizational actors, from several public institutions, which have significant decision-making power although framed by rules, laws and scarcity of recourses. The knowledge network is a conceptual and operational framework that allows the promotion of new ways of analysing facts and issues and their cooperative discussion, in view of a more effective decision-making process. The facilitation of this process should contribute to organizational learning and knowledge management. The paper also deals with the paradigm underlying the methodological approach, and the methods and tools used.

7/2003 D. Brito, M. Catalão-Lopes, "Mergers when Firms sell Asymmetric Complements"

This paper addresses merger activity when firms sell complements. Contrary to previous literature, at least one of the goods can be purchased separately, and need not be combined to create a composite good. In this sense complementarity is asymmetric. Several market structures, having different degrees of vertical and/or horizontal integration, are analyzed as to their internal and external effects. We use an endogenous mechanism for coalition formation and establish that the predictable merger is not welfare maximizing.

6/2003 F. Lima, "Os Custos dos Acidentes de Trabalho nas Empresas de Construção"

O número de acidentes de trabalho nas empresas de construção em Portugal é elevado quando comparado com os outros países da União Europeia. O presente estudo procura analisar o impacto económico das medidas de segurança e saúde para estas empresas. A análise centra-se na determinação dos custos dos acidentes de trabalho. Os resultados obtidos indicam que estes custos podem ser significativos, demonstrando que o investimento das empresas nas medidas adequadas é desejável e com um retorno positivo.

5/2003 M. I. R. Santos, A. M. O. Porta Nova, "Statistical Fitting and Validation of Nonlinear Simulation Metamodels: A Case Study"

Linear regression metamodels have been widely used to explain the behavior of computer simulation models, although they do not always provide a good global fit to smooth response functions of arbitrary shape. In the case study discussed in this paper, the use of several linear regression polynomials results in a poor fit. The use of a nonlinear regression metamodeling methodology provides simple functions that adequately approximate the behavior of the target simulation model. The importance of metamodel validation is emphasized by using the generalization of Rao's test to nonlinear metamodels and double-cross validation.

4/2003 F. Lima, M. Centeno, "The Careers of Top Managers and Firms Openness: Internal versus External Labour Markets"

This paper studies the careers of top managers using a large panel of firms. The main objective is to empirically evaluate the role of learning and human capital acquisition in promotion dynamics along with variables capturing the formation of internal labour market (ILM) practices. We find that promotion is negatively correlated with tenure, but that there is a non-linear negative duration dependence with elapsed time since the last promotion event. Firms showing a weaker degree of ILM are less prone to promote insiders. We next take the manager's career inside a firm as a sequence of promotion decisions, and use a nested structure of the promotion decision modelled as a nestes logit model. Reuslts show that the top manager's progression nest into four types: loser, early starter, late beginner, and champion, and that the degree of ILM has a significant impact on the process of learning inside the firm.

2/2003 R. M. Brandão, A. M. O. Porta Nova, "Analysis of Non-Stationary Stochastic Simulations Using Time Series"

This paper extends the use of time series models to the output analysis of non-stationary discrete event simulations. A thorough experimental evaluation showed that ARIMA(p; d; q) models are very promising meta-models for simulating queueing systems under critical traffic conditions. In some situations, stationarity-inducing transformations may be required, before this methodology can be used. Our approach for efficient estimation of performance measures of selected responses in the target system is illustrated with a single lane traffic analysis.

1/2003 R. M. Brandão, A. M. O. Porta Nova, "Non-Stationary Queue Simulation Analysis Using Time Series"

In this work, we extend the use of time series models to the output analysis of non-stationary discrete event simulations. In particular, we investigate and experimentally evaluate the applicability of ARIMA(p, d, q) models as potential metamodels for simulating queueing systems under critical traffic conditions. We exploit stationarity-inducing transformations, in order to efficiently estimate performance measures of selected responses in the system under study.