Program

• The decision-making problematic: Definition of the decision problem. Importance of decision making in engineering and management. Characteristics of the decision context.

• Decision making strategies: intuitive process, analytic and facilitated. Uncertainty and complexity. Most frequent critical mistakes: scoring, weighting and prioritising projects.

• What is Decision Analysis (DA)? DA objectives. The seven fundamental steps of DA. DA schools of thought and theoretical foundations. Value, utility and risk. Utility theory/value theory.

• Intervention strategies: decision making and decision aiding; from optimization to the learning paradigm. A socio-technical approach: process consultation, decision conferencing, Delphi and facilitation.

• Models, techniques and software for decision support:

                         1. Cognitive mapping (Decision Explorer);
                         2. Multiple criteria evaluation models (MACBETH);
                         3. Resource allocation and negotiation (PROBE, MACBETH);
                         4. Decision trees and influence diagrams (PrecisionTree);
                         5. Scenario analysis (Morphol);
                         6. Delphi process (ENERPHI platform);
                         7. Risk analysis (@RISK) and utility.