General information
Lectures slides
- week 1: Introduction to decision analysis
- week 1: Why Decision Analysis
- week 2: Individual vs. group decision-making.
- week 2 and 3: Decision aiding concepts.
- Week 4: Multicriteria value measurment
- Week 5: Problem structuring methods
- Week 5: Descriptor of performances
- Week 5: Weighting methods
- Week 6: Scales
- Week 6: MACBETH
- Week 7: MACBETH application I
- Week 7: Delphi method
- Week 8: MACBETH application II
- Week 8: MACBETH application III
- week 9: MACBETH for Resource Allocation
- week 10: Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams
- week 11: Utility theory, Risk and biases
- week 11 and 12: Resource Allocation with Mathematical Programming
- week 12: Bayesian Networks
- week 13: Monte Carlo Simulation
- week 14: Goal programming and Multi-Objective Optimization
FMUL: Prof. Antonio Vaz Carneiro (for Biomedical Engineering students)
- Evidence based medicine
- Medical uncertainty
- Choosing Wisely
- Basis for a rational prescription
- Precision medicine
Classes exercises
- week 1: Class presentation
- week 2: Exercises handout no. 1 - Multicriteria Evaluation
- week 2: Even swaps
- week 8: Handout no 1 - exercise 3
- week 10: Exercises handout no. 1 - Modeling uncertainty
- week 11: exercises mathematical programming
- week 12: Netica Software for Bayesian Networks
- week 12: Utility Function modeling
Labs information
- week 6: M-MACBETH user guide
- week 10: Precision Tree Handout - Part 1
- week 10: Precision Tree Handout - Part 2
- week 10: Texaco model
- week 14: Risk with Monte Carlo simulation Handout
- week 14: Step 13 to solve, from Risk Handout
- week 14: Monte Carlo Simulation only with Excel
Some complementary reading material
- week 1: Phillips, L.D. (2005) Decision analysis in 2005. OR47: Keynote and Tutorials.
- week 1: Montibeller, G., Von Winterfeldt, D. (2015). Cognitive and motivational biases in decision and risk analysis. Risk Anal, 35(7), 1230-1251.
- week 4: Phillips, L.D. (1984). A theory of requisite decision models. ActaPsychologica, 56, 29-48.
- week 5: Bana e Costa C.A., Lourenço J.C., Oliveira M.D. and Bana e Costa J.C. (2014) A socio-technical approach for group decision support in public strategic planning: The Pernambuco PPA case. Group Decis Negot, 23:5-29.
- week 5: Bana e Costa C.A., Ensslin L., Costa A.P. (1998) Structuring the process of choosing rice varieties at the south of Brazil, In E. Beinat, P. Nijkamp (eds.) Multi-Criteria Evaluation in Land-Use Management, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Book Series: Environment & Management, vol. 9, pp. 33-45.
- week 5: Bana e Costa, C. A., Beinat, E. (2005) Model-structuring in public decision-aiding, Working paper LSEOR 05.79, London School of Economics and Political Science, London.
- week 6: Stevens SS (1946) On the theory of scalesof measurement. Science, 103(2684), 677-680.
- week 6: Bana e Costa C.A., De Corte J.M., Vansnick J.C.(2012). MACBETH. InternationalJournal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 11(2), 359-387.
- Week 9 Clemen RT, Smith JE (2009) On the choice ofbaselines in multiattribute portfolio analysis: A cautionary note, Decis. Anal.6: 256?262.
- Week 9 Kleinmuntz DN (2007) Resource allocation decisions.In: Edwards W. et al. (Eds). Advances in decision analysis. Cambridge:400-418.
Evaluation
- Groupwork 1
- Agenda for the presentations
- Exam from previous year 2018/2019
- Grades from groupwork 1
- Grades from groupwork 1 after revision
- Groupwork 2
- Grades from groupwork 2
- Exam 06012020
- Exam 06012020 multiple choice questions
- Grades from exam 06012020
- Final grades after exam 06012020
- Participation and kahoot grade
- Grades from exam 06012020 after review
- Final grades after exam 06012020 and review
- Exam 28012020
- Exam 28012020 multiple choice questions
- Grades from exam 28012020
- Final grades after exam 28012020