GENERAL INFORMATION

• General information of the course

LECTURES' SLIDES

• week 1 T01 - Lecture video 02032021 (for students' use)
• week 2 T02 - Lecture video 09032021 (for students' use)
• week 3 T03 - Lecture video 16032021 (for students' use)
• week4 T04 (part I) - Lecture video 2303 (for students' use)
• week4 T04 (part II)
• week 5 T05 - Lecture video 07.04.2021 (for studens' use)
• week 6 T06 - Lecture video 13.04.2021 (for students' use)
• week 7 - (no video available)
• week 8 part I  - Lecture sound 27.04.2021 (for students'use)
• week 8 part II
  
• week 9 part I
• week 9 part II  - lecture video 4.05.2021
• Lecture 10.05
• Week 10 - Lecture video  11.05.2021
• Week 11 - Lecture video 18.05.2021
• Week 12 - Lecture video 25.05.2021

WEEKLY RECOMMENDED READINGS
Week 1

• Parnell, G. (2009) Decision Analysis in One Chart, Decision Line, 20-24.
• Howard, R. (1973) Decision Analysis in Systems Engineering in Miles, Jr., R. F. (Ed.)
• Phillips, L.D. (1984). A theory of requisite decision models. Acta Psychologica, 56, 29-48.
• Phillips, L. (2007) Decision conferencing. In Edwards, Miles and von Winterfeldt (Eds), Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications, Cambridge University Press. 

Week 2

• Karni, E. (2014). Chapter 1 - Axiomatic Foundations of Expected Utility and Subjective Probability. Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty. M. Machina and K. Viscusi, North-Holland. 1: 1-39

• Wallsten, T.S., Budescu, D. (1983) State of the Art?Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review, Management Science, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.29.2.151

Week 3

• Phillips, L.D., Bana e Costa, C.A. (2007) Transparent prioritisation, budgeting and resource allocation with multi-criteria decision analysis and decision conferencing, Annals of Operations Research, 154, 1, 51-68.

Week 4

• Bana e Costa C.A., Ensslin L., Costa A.P. (1998) Structuring the process of choosing rice varieties at the south of Brazil, In E. Beinat, P. Nijkamp (eds.) Multi-Criteria Evaluation in Land-Use Management, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Book Series: Environment & Management, vol. 9, pp. 33-45.
• Marttunen M., Lienert J., and Belton V. (2017) Structuring problems for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in practice: A literature review of method combinations. European Journal of Operational Research, 263:1-17.
• Smith C. M., Shaw, D. (2019). The characteristics of problem structuring methods: A literature review. European Journal of Operational Research, 274(2), 403-416.
• Bana e Costa, C. A., Beinat, E. (2005) Model-structuring in public decision-aiding, Working paper LSEOR 05.79, London School of Economics and Political Science, London.
• Bana e Costa C.A., Lourenço J.C., Oliveira M.D. and Bana e Costa J.C. (2014) A socio-technical approach for group decision support in public strategic planning: The Pernambuco PPA case. Group Decis Negot, 23:5-29.

Week 5

• Bana e Costa CA, Lourenço JC, Chagas MP, Bana e Costa JC (2008). Development of reusable bid evaluation models for the Portuguese Electric Transmission Company. Decision Analysis, 5(1), 22-42.

• Bana e Costa C.A., De Corte J.M., Vansnick J.C. (2012). MACBETH. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 11(2), 359-387.

Week 6

• Vieira ACL, Oliveira MD, Bana e Costa CA. (2019). Enhancing knowledge construction processes within multicriteria decision analysis: The Collaborative Value Modelling framework. Omega. Doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2019.03.005
• Linstone HA, Turoff M (2011) Delphi: a brief look backward and forward. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 78, 1712-1719.
• Landeta, J. (2006). Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(5), 467-482.
• Belton I, MacDonald A, Wright G, Hamlin I (2019). Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group based judgment: A six step prescription for a well founded and defensible process. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147, pp 72 82.
• Freitas A et al. (2018) Indicators for evaluating European population health: a Delphi selection process. BMC Public Health. 2018 Apr 27;18(1):557. doi: 10.1186/s12889-018-5463-0. PMID: 29703176; PMCID: PMC5922019.

Week 7

• Bana e Costa, C.A., Carnero, M.C., Oliveira, M.D. (2012) A Multi-Criteria Model for Auditing a Predictive Maintenance Programme. European Journal of Operational Research, 217, 381-393.

Week 8

• Bana e Costa, C. A., & Oliveira, M. D. (2012). A multicriteria decision analysis model for faculty evaluation. Omega - Int J Manage S, 40(4), 424-436.

Week 9

• Phillips, L.D., Bana e Costa, C.A. (2007) Transparent prioritisation, budgeting and resource allocation with multi-criteria decision analysis and decision conferencing, Annals of Operations Research, 154, 1, 51-68.

•  Clemen RT, Smith JE (2009) On the choice of baselines in multiattribute portfolio analysis: A cautionary note, Decis. Anal. 6: 256?262.
• Hummel JM, et al. (2017) Supporting the Project Portfolio Selection Decision of Research and Development Investments by Means of Multi-Criteria Resource Allocation Modelling. In: Marsh K, Goetghebeur M, Thokala P, and Baltussen R, eds. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to Support HealthcareDecisions. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 89-103.
• Salo, A., J. Keisler and A. Morton (2011). An invitation to Portfolio decision analysis. Portfolio decision analysis: improved methods for resource allocation. A. Salo, J. Keisler and A. Morton. New York, Springer: 3-28.

Week 10

• Clemen, R.T. (1996). Risk Attitudes. In Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction toDecision Analysis (2nd ed., pp. 461?502). Belmont, California: DuxburyPress. Read Chapter 4, Chapter 12 and Chapter 13.

• Wang, Y, et all (2021) How influential factors affect aviation networks: A Bayesian network analysis, In:Journal of Air Transport Management, vol. 91

Week 11

• Clemen, R.T. (1996). Risk Attitudes. In Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction toDecision Analysis (2nd ed., pp. 461?502). Belmont, California: DuxburyPress. Read Chapter 8, Chapter 10

Week 12

• Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (2004). Chapter 7: Applying simulation to decision problems. In Decision analysis for management judgement (3rd ed., pp. 179?211). Chichester, West Sussex, UK: Wiley.

• Clemen, R.T., Reilly, T. (2013), Chapter 11, Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools, Cengage Learning.

EVALUATION MATERIAL

• Exam 07.06.2018
• Exam 06.06.2019
• Groupwork 1
• Welphi handout
• Individual work assignment on risk
• Grades: welphi + groupwork 1
• Exam 15.06.2021
• Grades exam 1
• Grades after exam 1
• EXAM 2
• Grades exam 2
• Grades after exam 2
• grades final

SOFTWARE

• M-MACBETH with RA
• Palisade Decision Tools Suite (15 days trial) for Precision Tree and @risk; examples in this @Risk menu
• • Precision Tree Handout Part 1
  • Precision Tree Handout Part 2
  • File to support Precision Tree Handout Part 2
  • @Risk Handout; File to support risk handout
  • Example done in the Lecture with Monte Carlo simulation "Elite Pottery Company"