Teaching Material: Decision Analysis Models and Applications · Modelos e Aplicações em Análise de Decisão

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GENERAL INFORMATION

Program, scheduling, bibliography and evaluation

LECTURES' SLIDES

WEEKLY RECOMMENDED READINGS

Week 1 Phillips, L.D. (2005) Decision analysis in 2005. OR47: Keynote and Tutorials.
Week 1 Parnell, G. (2009) Decision Analysis in One Chart, Decision Line, 20-24.
Week 1 Howard, R. (1973) Decision Analysis in Systems Engineering in Miles, Jr., R. F. (Ed.)
Week 1 Stevens SS (1946) On the theory of scales of measurement. Science, 103(2684), 677-680.
Week 2 Phillips, L.D. (1984). A theory of requisite decision models. Acta Psychologica, 56, 29-48.
Week 2 Phillips, L. (2007) Decision conferencing. In Edwards, Miles and von Winterfeldt (Eds), Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications, Cambridge University Press.
Week 2 Phillips, L.D., Bana e Costa, C.A. (2007) Transparent prioritisation, budgeting and resource allocation with multi-criteria decision analysis and decision conferencing, Annals of Operations Research, 154, 1, 51-68.
Week 3 Kynn, Mary (2008) The 'heuristics and biases' bias in expert elicitation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 171(1), 239-264.
Week 3 Montibeller, G., Von Winterfeldt, D. (2015). Cognitive and motivational biases in decision and risk analysis. Risk Anal, 35(7), 1230-1251.
Week 4· Bana e Costa C.A., Ensslin L., Costa A.P. (1998) Structuring the process of choosing rice varieties at the south of Brazil, In E. Beinat, P. Nijkamp (eds.) Multi-Criteria Evaluation in Land-Use Management, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Book Series: Environment & Management, vol. 9, pp. 33-45.
Week 4 Bana e Costa C.A., Lourenço J.C., Oliveira M.D. and Bana e Costa J.C. (2014) A socio-technical approach for group decision support in public strategic planning: The Pernambuco PPA case. Group Decis Negot, 23:5-29.
Week 4 Marttunen M., Lienert J., and Belton V. (2017) Structuring problems for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in practice: A literature review of method combinations. European Journal of Operational Research, 263:1-17.
Week 4 Keeney R.L. (1996) Value-focused thinking: Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives. European Journal of Operational Research, 92:537-549.
Week 4 Smith C. M., Shaw, D. (2019). The characteristics of problem structuring methods: A literature review. European Journal of Operational Research, 274(2), 403-416.
Week 5 Chapter 3 Goodwin P., Wright G. (2010). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment. Chichester, John Wiley.
Week 5 Bana e Costa CA, Lourenço JC, Chagas MP, Bana e Costa JC (2008). Development of reusable bid evaluation models for the Portuguese Electric Transmission Company. Decision Analysis, 5(1), 22-42.
Week 5 Bana e Costa, C. A., Beinat, E. (2005) Model-structuring in public decision-aiding, Working paper LSEOR 05.79, London School of Economics and Political Science, London.
Week 6 Bana e Costa C.A., De Corte J.M., Vansnick J.C. (2012). MACBETH. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 11(2), 359-387.
Week 6 Bana e Costa C.A., De Corte J.M., Vansnick, J.C. (2016). On the Mathematical Foundations of MACBETH. In S. Greco, M. Ehrgott, & R. J. Figueira (Eds.), Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys (pp. 421-463). New York, NY: Springer.
Week 7 Clemen RT, Smith JE (2009) On the choice of baselines in multiattribute portfolio analysis: A cautionary note, Decis. Anal. 6: 256?262.
Week 7 Hummel JM, et al. (2017) Supporting the Project Portfolio Selection Decision of Research and Development Investments by Means of Multi-Criteria Resource Allocation Modelling. In: Marsh K, Goetghebeur M, Thokala P, and Baltussen R, eds. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to Support Healthcare Decisions. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 89-103.
Week 7 Lourenço JC, Soares JO, Bana e Costa CA (2017) Portfolio robustness evaluation: a case study in the electricity sector. Technol Econ Dev Econ 23:59-80.
Week 7 Kleinmuntz DN (2007) Resource allocation decisions. In: Edwards W. et al. (Eds). Advances in decision analysis. Cambridge:400-418.
Week 8 Linstone HA, Turoff M (2011) Delphi: a brief look backward and forward. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 78, 1712-1719.
Week 8 Vieira ACL, Oliveira MD, Bana e Costa CA. (2019). Enhancing knowledge construction processes within multicriteria decision analysis: The Collaborative Value Modelling framework. Omega. Doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2019.03.005
Week 8 Landeta, J. (2006). Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(5), 467-482.
Week 9 Bana e Costa, C. A., Fernandes, T. G., & Correia, P. V. D. (2006). Prioritisation of public investments in social infrastructures using multicriteria value analysis and decision conferencing: a case study. Int T Oper Res, 13(4), 279?297.
Week 9 John P. Geis, I., Parnell, G. S., Newton, H., & Bresnick, T. (2011). Blue Horizons Study Assesses Future Capabilities and Technologies for the United States Air Force. INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics, 41(4), 338-353.
Week 9 Ewing Jr, P. L., Tarantino, W., & Parnell, G. S. (2006). Use of decision analysis in the army base realignment and closure (BRAC) 2005 military value analysis. Decision Analysis, 3(1), 33-49.
Week 10 Wilson, E.C. (2015). A practical guide to value of information analysis. Pharmacoeconomics, 33(2), 105-121.
Week 10 von Winterfeldt, et al. (2012) The Value of Environmental Information without Control of Subsequent Decisions, Risk Analysis, 32 (12), 2113-2032.
Week 10 Chapter 2 in Jensen, F.V. (1996), An Introduction to Bayesian Networks, UCL Press, London.
Week 10 Neapolitan, R., Jiang, X., Ladner, D. P., & Kaplan, B. (2016). A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Personalized Kidney Transplant Decision. Transplantation, 100(3), 489-496.
Week 10 Keeney, R. L. (2006). Eliciting Knowledge About Values For Public Policy Decisions. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 05(04), 739-749.
Week 11 Cummins et al. (2009) A Monte Carlo Risk Assessment Model for Acrylamide Formation in French Fries, Risk Analysis, 10, 1410-1426.
Week 11 Roberts, J.A. et al. (2011) Monte Carlo simulations: maximizing antibiotic pharmacokinetic data to optimize clinical practice for critically ill patients. Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, 66(2), 227-231
Week 11 Raychaudhuri, S. (2008) Introduction to Monte Carlo simulation. Winter Simulation Conference. Miami: IEEE
Week 12 Chapter 10 from Vose (2008, Risk Analysis, a quantitative guide)
Week 12 Budescu, D. V., Chen, E. (2014) Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds, Management Science, 61(2), 267-280.
Week 12 Marttunen M., Lienert J., and Belton V. (2017) Structuring problems for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in practice: A literature review of method combinations. European Journal of Operational Research, 263:1-17.
Week 12 de Gooyert, V., Rouwette, E., van Kranenburg, H., & Freeman, E. (2017). Reviewing the role of stakeholders in Operational Research: A stakeholder theory perspective. European Journal of Operational Research, 262(2), 402-410. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2017.03.079
Week 12 Shephard, G., Kirkhood, C. (1994) Managing the judgmental probability elicitation process: A case study of analyst/manager interaction, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 41, 4.

EVALUATION MATERIAL

SOFTWARE