Program, scheduling, bibliography and evaluation 2016/2017

Week 1 slides
Week 2 slides
Week 3 slides part A
Week 3 slides part B
Week 4 part A
Week 4 part B
Week 4 part C
Week 4 part D
Week 5a
Week 5b
Week 6
Week 7a
Week 7b
Week 8a
Week 8b
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12a
Week 12b
Week 13a
Week 13b

Week 1 Phillips, L.D. (2005) Decision analysis in 2005. OR47: Keynote and Tutorials.
Week 1 Parnell, G. (2009) Decision Analysis in One Chart, Decision Line, 20-24.
Week 1 Howard, R. (1973) Decision Analysis in Systems Engineering in Miles, Jr., R. F. (Ed.).
Week 2 Phillips, L.D. (1984). A theory of requisite decision models. Acta Psychologica, 56, 29-48.
Week 2 Phillips, L. (2007) Decision conferencing.  In Edwards, Miles and von Winterfeldt (Eds), Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications, Cambridge University Press.
Week 2 Phillips, L.D., Bana e Costa, C.A. (2007) Transparent prioritisation, budgeting and resource allocation with multi-criteria decision analysis and decision conferencing, Annals of Operations Research, 154, 1, 51-68.
Week 3 Bana e Costa, C. A., Beinat, E. (2005) Model-structuring in public decision-aiding, Working paper LSEOR 05.79, London School of Economics and Political Science, London.
Week 3 Franco, L.A. and Montibeller, G. (2011) Problem structuring for multicriteria decision analysis interventions.  In: J.J. Cochran (Ed.), Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, Wiley.
Week 3 Bana e Costa, C.A., Lourenço, J.C., Chagas, M.P., Bana e Costa, J.C. (2008). Development of reusable bid evaluation models for the Portuguese Electric Transmission Company. Decision Analysis, 5(1), 22-42.
Week 4 Hammond, J.S., Keeney, R.L., Raiffa, H. (1998). Even swaps: A rational method for making trade-offs. Harvard Business Review, 76(2), 137-150.
Week 4 Chapter 3 Goodwin, P. and G. Wright (2010). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment. Chichester, John Wiley.
Week 4 Chapter 4.2 Belton, V., Stewart, T.J. (2001) Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach, Springer.
Week 4 Bana e Costa, C.A., Angulo-Meza, L., Oliveira, M.D. (2013) O método MACBETH e a sua aplicação no Brasil, ENGEVISTA, 15(1), 3-27.
Week 4 Bana e Costa, C.A., Oliveira, M.D. (2012) A Multicriteria Decision Analysis Model for Faculty Evaluation. Omega: The International Journal of Management Science, 40, 424–436.
Week 4 Bana e Costa C.A., Ensslin L., Costa A.P. (1998) Structuring the process of choosing rice varieties at the south of Brazil, In E. Beinat, P. Nijkamp (eds.) Multi-Criteria Evaluation in Land-Use Management, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Book Series: Environment & Management, vol. 9, pp. 33-45.
Week 5 Bana e Costa, C.A., De Corte, J.M., Vansnick, J.C. (2012). MACBETH. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 11(2), 359-387.
Week 5 Sanchez-Lopez, R., Bana e Costa, C.A., De Baets, B. (2012) The MACBETH approach for multi-criteria evaluation of development projects on cross-cutting issues, Annals of Operational Research, 199, 1, 339-408.
Week 5 Bana e Costa, C., Lourenço, J. C., Chagas, M. P., Bana e Costa, J. C. (2008). Development of reusable bid evaluation models for the Portuguese Electric Transmission Company. Decision Analysis, 5(1), 22-42. (see link above)
Week 6 Landeta, J. (2006). "Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 73(5): 467-482.

Week 6 von der Gracht, H. A. (2012). "Consensus measurement in Delphi studies: Review and implications for future quality assurance." Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 79(8), 1525-1536.

Week 6 Boulkedid R, Abdoul H, Loustau M, et al.  (2011). “Using and Reporting the Delphi Method for Selecting Healthcare Quality Indicators: A Systematic Review” PLoS ONE.  6(6): e20476.

Week 6 Gnatzy et al. (2011). “Validating an innovative real-time Delphi approach - A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78, 1681–1694.

Week 6 Linstone HA, Turoff M (2011) Delphi: a brief look backward and forward. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 78, 1712-1719.
Week 7 Bana e Costa, C.A., Carnero, M.C., Oliveira, M.D. (2012) A Multi-Criteria Model for Auditing a Predictive Maintenance Programme. European Journal of Operational Research, 217, 381-393.
Week 7 Oliveira, M.D., Lopes, D., Bana e Costa, C. (forthcoming) Improving occupational health and safety risk evaluation through decision analysis, International Transactions in Operational Research. doi:10.1111/itor.12339
Week 7 Oliveira, M.D., Bana e Costa, C.A., Lopes, D.F. (forthcoming) Designing and exploring risk matrices with MACBETH, International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making. DOI:
Week 7 Stevens, S. S. (1946) On the Theory of Scales of Measurement, Science, 103, 2684, 677-680.
Week 7 Chapter 1 in Nunnally, J.C., Bernstein, I.H. (1994). Psychometric Theory, 3rd ed.
Week 8 Bana e Costa, C.A., Fernandes, T.G., Correia, P.V.D., 2006. Prioritisation of public investments in social infrastructures using multicriteria value analysis and decision conferencing: A case study. International Transactions in Operational Research, 13(4), 279-297.
Week 8 Lourenço, J.C., Morton, A., Bana e Costa, C.A., 2012. PROBE—A multicriteria decision support system for portfolio robustness evaluation. Decision Support Systems, 54(1), 534-550.
Week 8 Hummel, M.J.M., Oliveira, M.D., Bana e Costa, C.A., IJzerman, M.J. (forthcoming) Supporting the project portfolio selection decision of research and development investments by means of multi-criteria resource allocation modelling, In Marsh, K., Goetghebeur, M., Thokala, P., Baltussen, R. (Eds.) Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to Support Healthcare Decisions, Springer.
Week 8 Montibeller, G., von Winterfeldt, D. von (2015) Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis DOI: 10.1111/risa.12360.
Week 8 von Winterfeldt, D. (1982) Setting Standards for Offshore Oil Discharges: A Regulatory Decision Analysis, Operations Research, 30(5), 867-886.
Week 9 Claxton KP, Sculpher MJ. (2006) Using value of information analysis to prioritise health research: some lessons from recent UK experience, Pharmacoeconomics, 24(11), 1055-68.
Week 9 von Winterfeldt, D.,  Kavet, R., Peck, S., Mohan, M., Hazen, G. (2012) The Value of Environmental Information without Control of Subsequent Decisions, Risk Analysis, 32 (12), 2113-2032.

Week 9 Chapter 2 in Jensen, F.V. (1996), An Introduction to Bayesian Networks, UCL Press, London.

Week 9 Demirer, R., Mau, R., Shenoy, C. (2006) Bayesian Networks: A Decision Tool to Improve Portfolio Risk Analysis, Journal of Applied Finance, 16(2), 106.

Week 10 Chapter 10 from Vose (2008, Risk Analysis, a quantitative guide)
Week 10 Kirkham, R. J., Boussabaine, A. H., Awwad, B.H. (2002) Probability distributions of facilities management costs for whole life cycle costing in acute care NHS hospital buildings, Construction Management and Economics 20(3): 251-261.
Week 10 Shephard, G., Kirkhood, C. (1994) Managing the judgmental probability elicitation process: A case study of analyst/manager interaction, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 41, 4.
Week 10 Budescu, D. V., Chen, E. (2014) Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds, Management Science, 61(2), 267-280.

Week 11 Gooyert, V. d., et al. (Forthcoming). "Reviewing the role of stakeholders in Operational Research: A stakeholder theory perspective." European Journal of Operational Research.

Week 11 Marttunen, M., et al. (Forthcoming). "Structuring problems for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Practice: A Literature Review of Method Combinations." European Journal of Operational Research.

Week 11 Cummins et al. (2009) A Monte Carlo Risk Assessment Model for Acrylamide Formation in French Fries, Risk Analysis, 10, 1410-1426.

Week 11 Bana e Costa, C.A., J.A.A. Ferreira, and J.C. (1995) Avaliação multicritério de propostas: o caso de uma nova linha do metropolitano de Lisboa. Revista de Transportes e Tecnologia, VII(14), 31-65.
Week 12 chapter 15 from Goodwin, P., Wright, G. (2009). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (4th ed.). Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Week 12 Amer, M., Daim, T.U., Jetter, A. (2013) A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 4623-4640.
Week 12 Godet, M. (2000). The art of scenarios and strategic planning: tools and pitfalls. Technological forecasting and social change, 65(1), 3-22.Week 13 Wilson, I. (2000), “From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 65, Number 1: 23-29.
Week 13 Fortes, Patrícia, Alvarenga, A., Seixas, J., Rodrigues, S. (2015), “Long-term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy modeling”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 91, February, Pages 161-178.
Week 13 Varum, C., Melo, C., Alvarenga, A. e Carvalho, P. (2011): “Scenarios and possible futures for hospitality and tourism”, Foresight, Vol. 13, Iss: 1, pp. 19-35.

Handout groupwork
Article André Raposo
Article Liliana Santos
Article Luís Barros
Article Luís Gomes
Article Marlene Marques
Article Marta Salgado
Article Paulo Maia
Article Pedro Rodrigues
Article Vitor Guimarães
Article William Meira
Handout individual work

Exam 12/06/2017
Grades individual assignment
All other grades and final grades 16/06/2017
Final grades 29/06/2017
Exam 22/06/2017

Example 1 exam
Example 2 exam
Sofware with resource allocation module
Example of file for using resource allocation module in M-MACBETH
Morphol software (exe)
File for Mactor demoFile for Morphol demo
Handout with Precision Tree 1
Handout with Precision Tree 2
Handout with @risk
Texaco file