The 2014 Oil Crisis and the impact on Innovation for Alternative Sources of Energy - The Cases of Japan, Germany and the United States of America EVALUATED

Oil is considered one of the most important resources of our times. Since the world is heavily dependent on oil for achieving its energy necessities, this dependency can have severe consequences on the economies.To what extend is innovation in alternative energy technologies affected by the prices of crude oil? Do lower oil prices translate into less innovation in the alternative energies sector? A statistical model will assess the impact that variations in the price of crude oil have on innovation for alternative energy technologies, between 2000 and 2015, using counts of patent applications as a proxy for innovation. The analysis will be focused on three countries, Germany, Japan, and the United States of America. We provide a new contribution assessing data that includes a period of declining prices, after the 2014 oil crisis. A Poisson regression model was run and we found that a negative variation in oil prices drives a negative variation in the number of patent applications for alternative energies, whereas a positive variation in oil prices drives an increase in the number of these patents. An oil price increase has a greater effect in patents for alternative energies than an oil price decrease in Germany and in the United States of America, while in Japan the effect is statistically the same.
petróleo, energias-alternativas, regressão-Poisson, patentes

Junho 28, 2017, 16:0


Obra sujeita a Direitos de Autor



Maria Margarida Martelo Catalão Lopes de Oliveira Pires Pina

Departamento de Engenharia e Gestão (DEG)

Professor Auxiliar